Congressional Surge: Democrats May Be Set for Big Gains
Prospects in the United States Senate
Senate races look to add eight seats to the Democratic tally. Assuming we discount Lieberman and count on Bernie Sanders in Vermont, the progressive tally could be 59 to 41. Our hopes for sixty seats appear to be centered on a December run-off election in Georgia between Jim Martin (D) and Saxby Chambliss (R). A run-off would be necessary if neither candidate gets less than 50% of the November vote.
The Swing State Project discusses the prospects in Georgia.
John McCain has been on a tear about Earmarks. Well, if the Democrats are one or two votes short of closing off debate next spring on an important bill, we might all get a lesson of why Earmarks are the “grease that makes the wheels turn.”
See Electoral-Vote.com and FiveThirtyEight.com for more U.S. Senate polling data.
Prospects in the House of Representatives
Democrats are recording improvements in prospects for the House of Representatives as well. A few weeks ago the pundits were talking about a gain of 12 to 18 seats in the House. Here is a representative list of the current views:
- Norman Ormstein, American Enterprise Institute estimates Dems win 28 new house seats.
- David Marchick, Carlyle Group estimates Dems win 24 new House seats.
- Susan Brophy, Democratic strategist estimates Dems win 24 new House seats.
- Lanny Davis, Attorney and Democratic strategist estimates Dems win 10 new House seats.
- Jim Leach, Professor and Former Congressman estimates Dems win 36 new House seats.
- Lawrence Lessig, Stanford Law Professor estimates Dems win 24 new House seats.
In news of our area, Swing State Project is pretty convinced that Anne Kirkpatrick will win in CD#1 and they report that the RNCC has pulled out of CD#8 where Gabrielle Giffords is favored over Tim Bee.