The Republicans are playing an soap opera in Minneapolis.  But in our view, it’s an elaborate scheme to avoid talking about the issues.  It’s likely in our view that Republicans don’t want to talk about the war, the economy, Katrina, health care, NAFTA, or anything else.

As Democrats our message needs to be clear.  This country needs to address a number of issues that are adversely affecting all our lives.  The unpopular war in Iraq has drained our treasury and devalued the American dollar.  We are losing jobs at unprecedented rates.

So let’s stop all this talk about Sarah Palin and get back to the things that count.

John McCain has exercised his judgment as to an appropriate choice for the Republican nomination for Vice President.  Yes, we can and should question his judgment on this matter.  To appoint someone without Presidential credentials does not reflect well on John McCain.

But in our view, the only thing about Sarah Palin that is worth talking about is her record, her beliefs and values.  Let’s leave the soap opera out of it.

Apparently while no one was watching, the RNC Platform Committee was dancing “off message.” A platform plank critical of Bush and McCain is adopted. None of us want more federal control of the economy, but we don’t want to see the whole thing collapse. George Bush and the Republican party wiped out federal regulation of the mortgage market. Now we see the results, but do we want to spread panic and induce a depression? Come on fellows, the home building and mortgage markets are too central to our economy to abandon.

Bloomberg News, September 2nd, 2008

The Republican Party platform took aim yesterday at President George W. Bush and presidential nominee John McCain for supporting big-government bailouts.

In language unusual for a party’s statement of principles, economic conservatives used the document to reject the rescue of companies such as Bear Stearns  Cos., Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, intended to ease the year-old credit crisis. “We do not support government bailouts of private institutions,” according to the text, adopted at the national convention in St. Paul, Minnesota. “Government interference in the markets exacerbates problems in the marketplace and causes the free market to take longer to correct itself.”

Tony Sutton, a delegate from Minnesota and co-chairman of the economic subcommittee of the Republican platform, said bailouts are “antithetical to our ideology. The platform committee and the Republican Party believe that the government should interfere in markets little or not at all.”

The document makes no reference to the credit crunch, which many economists say is the biggest threat to the economy in decades. The omission was by design, said Giovanni Cicione, a Rhode Island delegate who served on the subcommittee.

The crisis, said Cicione, “is an issue that is very easy to address with a half-solution for the sake of a political point, and that just makes the problem worse in the long term.”

The Bush administration, led by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, has taken an increasingly active role in the economy. Many of these critics believe that a policy of deliberate devaluation of the US dollar has become the prime objective of the Bush administration.

In January, Paulson worked with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat, to craft a $168 billion economic-stimulus package to stave off a recession. In March, the Treasury helped the Federal Reserve orchestrate the sale of Bear Stearns. In July, Paulson put together a plan to prevent the collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

“It’s becoming a pattern,” Sutton said.

Some conservatives suggested the White House should allow institutions to fail even if it causes market instability.

“Sometimes it’s best to leave the markets to fluctuate,” said Beth Harwell, a member of the Tennessee House of Representatives and an alternate delegate to the convention.

Can’t Let Them Fail

McCain, 72, supported Treasury’s actions on Bear Stearns. And while he decried using taxpayer funds to shore up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, he backed a July bill to aid the companies, saying, “We cannot allow them to fail.”

McCain has said he wouldn’t allow “dogma to override common sense,” referring to bank rescues.

Click here to ream more at Bloomberg News.

The governor’s past practice on earmarks stands in contrast to the views of her running mate, a researcher at a watchdog group says.

By Tom Hamburger, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
September 1, 2008

ANCHORAGE — Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin presents herself as an ally of presidential candidate John McCain when it comes to curbing wasteful government spending.  But on Friday, McCain introduced her as his running mate and she said she “championed reform to end the abuses of earmark spending,” the legislative technique used to slip projects into appropriations bills without rigorous congressional review.

But under her leadership, the state of Alaska has requested 31 earmarks worth $197.8 million in next year’s federal budget, according to the website of Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), the former chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee.

Palin has recently been publicly critical of requests made in past years by Stevens and others for $223 million in federal funds for a bridge from Ketchikan, Alaska, to Gravina Island, calling it “the Bridge to Nowhere,” a derogatory label critics attached to the project.

As a candidate for governor in 2006, she backed funding for the bridge.

After her election, however, she killed the project, saying she would use the federal funds for other purposes.

As mayor of the small city of Wasilla, Alaska, Palin appears to have made use of the system she now decries, hiring a Washington lobbyist, Steven Silver, to represent the town. Years ago, Silver worked as an aide to Stevens.

After he was hired, the city obtained funding for several projects, including a city bus facility that received an earmark valued at $600,000 in 2002. That year a local water and sewer project received $1.5 million in federal earmarks, according to Taxpayers for Common Sense, a nonpartisan watchdog organization.

A campaign spokeswoman, referring only to Palin’s record as governor, responded that “she took the lead in slashing wasteful spending.”

If correct, a national lead over 4 points is usually deemed to be “unbeatable” by any  electoral vote calculation.  But let’s keep working!!!

CBS News Poll, September 2nd 2008

 Democratic nominee Barack Obama’s lead over Republican John McCain has grown after the Democratic convention, which 71 percent of Americans say they watched. Obama and his running mate Joe Biden now lead McCain and Sarah Palin 48 percent to 40 percent, according to the latest CBS News poll.

This is the first CBS News poll to include the vice presidential candidates in the horserace question.

The eight-point lead for the Democratic ticket is up from Obama’s three-point lead before the convention. But there are still a significant number of voters who have yet to firmly make up their minds.

Before the Democratic convention, McCain enjoyed a 12-point advantage with independent voters, but now Obama leads among this group 43 percent to 37 percent. Obama’s lead among women has also grown to 14 points (50 percent to 36 percent), and the Democrat maintained the lead he had before the convention among voters who supported Senator Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries.

The poll shows an increase in the number of Obama voters who are enthusiastic about him. Sixty-seven percent of Obama voters say they enthusiastically support him, which is up from 48 percent who said so before the convention. About a quarter of McCain’s backers are enthusiastic about him–unchanged from before the Democratic convention.

Click here to read more at CBS News.

She’s quoted as saying that a $30 billion dollar natural gas pipeline is “God’s Will” in a video of her speech that has now been posted on the Internet. Critics continue to say that this raises questions about John McCain’s judgment and vetting skills.  Meantime, Obama polls are going up; now better than 50% for first time.

Associated Press, September 3rd, 2008

ANCHORAGE, Alaska – Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin told ministry students at her former church that the United States sent troops to fight in the Iraq war on a “task that is from God.”

In an address last June, the Republican vice presidential candidate also urged ministry students to pray for a plan to build a $30 billion natural gas pipeline in the state, calling it “God’s will.”

Palin asked the students to pray for the troops in Iraq, and noted that her eldest son, Track, was expected to be deployed there.

“Our national leaders are sending them out on a task that is from God,” she said. “That’s what we have to make sure that we’re praying for, that there is a plan and that plan is God’s plan.”

A video of the speech was posted at the Wasilla Assembly of God’s Web site before finding its way on to other sites on the Internet.

Palin told graduating students of the church’s School of Ministry, “What I need to do is strike a deal with you guys.” As they preached the love of Jesus throughout Alaska, she said, she’d work to implement God’s will from the governor’s office, including creating jobs by building a pipeline to bring North Slope natural gas to North American markets.

“God’s will has to be done in unifying people and companies to get that gas line built, so pray for that,” she said.

Click here to read more about the remarkable speech of Sarah Palin.

Here is a story from American Spectator, a monthly magazine not often seen here as it is most noted for its Neo-Conservative roots and bias.

American Spectator; September 5th, 2008
John Tabin

A Conventional Flop

ST PAUL — The just concluded Republican National Convention was, for the most part, a failure.

Monday night was a total loss, mostly canceled in deference to a hurricane that turned out, thankfully, to be less serious than feared. Tuesday night featured a good speech by Fred Thompson and a typically lugubrious performance by Joe Lieberman. The Thompson speech was not carried by the broadcast networks.

The convention’s final night, traditionally the most-watched, was the biggest mess of all. Speakers were apparently chosen not based on who would be the best warm-up act for John McCain, but based on who was friendliest with John McCain. So we got dull performances from Lindsey Graham and Tom Ridge, and a little too much time devoted to Cindy McCain showing off the family.

Then there was the nominee’s speech itself. It had its moments toward the end, but for the most part it was too long, too low key, too flat, and too boring. What’s worse, the stagecraft was poor: McCain spoke in front of a screen that was an eye-watering green or blue for large swaths of his speech.  Click here for more from American Spectator.

Senator Barack Obama has been struggling for months with older Jewish voters principally in south Florida.  The addition of evangelical christian Sarah Palin may have reversed a trend and tipped a Florida into the Democratic column. Suddenly, Obama/Biden looks better than Palin-McCain.

Politico, Ben Smith, September 2nd, 2008

ST. PAUL, Minn. — Barack Obama has struggled for 18 months to lock down the support of a traditionally Democratic group, Jewish voters.

In the past week, John McCain may have helped Obama with his Jewish problem by choosing Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate.

McCain and Obama are battling over a portion of the Jewish community: older, conservative Democrats, largely in South Florida, some of whom backed Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary. McCain’s secular, hawkish credentials appeal to many in that group, who are skeptical of Obama’s relatively short record and have been deluged with rumors about his pro-Palestinian leanings.

But Democrats hope Palin’s social conservatism, her paper-thin record on Israel, and — perhaps most importantly — her cultural roots in evangelical Christianity may be a major turnoff to Jewish voters, just as Republicans have tried to reach women disappointed that Obama didn’t choose Hillary Clinton,

Democrats have already begun to to capitalize on the choice of Palin — over Jewish Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman — in South Florida and elsewhere. A prominent Obama backer, Florida Rep. Robert Wexler, has attacked Palin for appearing at a 1999 event with Pat Buchanan — who has attacked the influence of the Israeli lobby in America. And the same factors that are rallying the evangelical base to Palin may push away the Jews.

“There is almost always an inverse proportion between a candidate’s popularity among conservative Christians and secular Jews,” said Jeff Ballabon, a Republican lobbyist long active in Jewish politics who supports McCain.  Click here to read more at Politico.

The past ten days have shook the financial and whole worlds.  Earlier this week we looked over a cliff and listened to Republicans who assured us that the Free Market Economies were “safe.” The result has been a huge bounce for Barack Obama.  FiveThirtyEight.com, our favorite poll watcher site now estimates that the chances are better than two to one in Barack’s favor.  That’s almost as stunning as picking a moose hunter as Vice President!

Five Thirty Eight.com Poll Results
September 19th 2008

Let’s not equivocate too much here.  Over the course of the past several days, there has been a rather dramatic shift in this election toward Barack Obama. Our trend line estimate, which is engineered to be fairly conservative, registers the swing as equaling roughly 4 points over the course of the past week.

Changes of this velocity are unusual outside of the convention periods and the debates, especially in close elections. It took John McCain about 60 days and tens of millions of advertising dollars to whittle Obama’s lead down from roughly 5 points at its peak in early June, to the 1-point lead that Obama held heading into the conventions. Obama has swing the numbers that much in barely a week.

Of course, we never really were entirely outside of gravitational field of the conventions, and probably at least half of this bounceback for Obama is merely the more-or-less inevitable consequence of McCain’s convention bounce ending. But the fact is that Obama is in a stronger position now than he was immediately before the conventions. We now have him winning the election 71.5 percent of the time, which is about as high as that number has been all year.

There are two reasons why that number is as high as it is. Firstly, we are more than halfway through the penultimate month of the campaign, so even relatively small leads are fairly meaningful. But secondly, Obama has developed a structural advantage in the Electoral College that is understated by the popular vote margin. If we break the election down into its four fundamental scenarios, it looks like this:

62.5% Obama wins Popular Vote and Electoral College

0.7% Obama wins Popular Vote, loses Electoral College

27.8% McCain wins Popular Vote and Electoral College

9.0% McCain wins Popular Vote, loses Electoral College

Click here to read more at FiveThirtyEight.com.

News: A reformed Wall Streeter explains the latest Treasury-Fed-SEC plan to revive the markets.

By Nomi Prins,  September 19, 2008

Friday, like an electrical shock to a failed heart, federal money promises lifted the pulse of the financial markets. Unfortunately, Washington still doesn’t know how much risk it’s taking on.

Treasury Sec. Henry Paulson’s multi-billion dollar market rescue includes four things to save the market: Creating a toxic waste fund for worthless mortgage assets, extending the Fed’s discount window to investment banks, using a $50 billion Depression-era Exchange Stabilization Fund to guarantee money market investments, and installing a temporary ban on short-selling 799 financial stocks.

The stock market loves all of them, finishing Friday’s trading session with a flourish. Even Bush came out of hiding to optimistically note that, “in the short run, adjustments can be painful…in the long run, I’m confident that our capital markets are flexible and resilient and can deal with these adjustments.”

The waste-removal vehicle that Paulson is proposing is similar to the S&L crisis one; the Resolution Trust Corporation created in 1989 to assume over $125 billion in bad assets owned by insolvent savings and loan companies. Its primary goal was to sell them into the market slowly, giving the industry time to heal.

Will that work now? Not really. The packaged mortgage assets today are much more complicated than they were 20 years ago, and the entangled credit default products less transparent. Plus, S&Ls were regulated by the government, whereas the institutions that could benefit from such a fund today, like investment banks and hedge funds and insurance companies, are not.

As for a short-sale ban—this isn’t the first time that SEC Chairman Christopher Cox has proposed one under a measure provided by the 1934 Securities Exchange Act. After four months of deliberating the role that short selling might have played in the pummeling of Bear Stearns‘ stock, he installed a 10 day short-sale ban, between July 21st and 29th. That didn’t work for long.

But, sort of like with Sarah Palin and the bridge to nowhere, before he was against short selling, he was for it. Last year, the SEC removed a post 1929 stock market crash rule that only allowed short selling when the stock price’s last tick was positive, which was designed to prevent the kind of short selling he’s concerned about now.

Meanwhile, Central Banks around the world are lavishing cash on the financial industry to keep liquidity alive. Today, Japan, Australia, India and Indonesia pumped $42 billion into their money markets, a day after the US Federal Reserve pushed through an $180 billion package. The Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and European Central bank lent $70 billion of cash to their markets.

Click here to read more at Mother Jones.

Paul Krugman of the New York Times reveals that John McCain and Sarah Palin want to apply the same financial reforms we have come to know and love in Wall Street to America’s health care!

Paul Krugman, New York Times, Sept 19th

OK, a correspondent directs me to John McCain’s article, Better Health Care at Lower Cost for Every American, in the Sept./Oct. issue of Contingencies, the magazine of the American Academy of Actuaries. You might want to be seated before reading this.

Here’s what McCain has to say about the wonders of market-based health reform:

Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation.

So McCain, who now poses as the scourge of Wall Street, was praising financial deregulation like 10 seconds ago — and promising that if we marketize health care, it will perform as well as the financial industry!  Here is a link to Mr. Krugman’s blog at the New York Times.