A bloody fight is brewing with the Arizona Republicans. Last weekend, the Arizona Republican Party elected Randy Pullen as State Chairman after vicious floor fight. Mr. Pullen is an extremist right-wing Republican and he defeated Lisa James, a moderate by only 4 votes out of more than eight hundred cast.

The campaign between Mrs. James and Mr. Pullen has been going on for weeks and politicking has been grim. In the last weeks of the campaign members of the two camps took aim at each other and allegations flew on conservative blogs. Pullen is to serve a two-year term as state chairman. He replaces outgoing Chairman Matt Salmon.

Randy Pullen has been a controversial figure in Arizona politics. He has been the leader behind Proposition 200 and Republican attempts to suppress Mexican-Americans. He was endorsed by Randy Graf and Jon Kyl. Arizona’s senior Senator John McCain and many others of the GOP’s congressional delegation adamently opposed Pullen’s candidacy. Randy Pullen has twice run unsuccessfully for mayor of Phoenix, but is perhaps best known for his avid opposition to illegal immigration. He earned the loyalty of border activists and the Minutemen in recent years with his support of Proposition 200, which Arizona voters approved in 2004 to block undocumented immigrants from accessing certain services.

But his get-tough immigration stance has at times raised eyebrows among some Republicans, and the bulk of Arizona’s congressional delegation supported James in her bid for chairwoman. She also was a known entity, owing to her campaign work on behalf of President Bush in 2000 and 2004, and her leadership of the Arizona GOP’s Victory 2006 effort last year.

After pledging to help bring the party together after his brusing victory, Randy Pullen got some bad news on Monday at the office. On Monday, GOP attorney Tim Casey and fund-raising director Renee Roebuck stepped down. Communications director and interim executive director Garrick Taylor and voter data expert Brent Frazier also have given their resignations.

They’ll leave their paid roles with the state party next week. That would leave the office without any paid staffers. “I find it interesting, that’s all I can say,” Matt Salmon, the outgoing Chair said Tuesday. “There’s a lot of institutional knowledge with those folks.”

Here are some links to follow this story.Who Chairs the Party will matter.from the Arizona Star on January 27th. Then there is this follow-up story. Pullen to Lead AZ Republicans from the Arizona Republic. And yet another: Resignations Mount at AZ Republican Party

All in all, this is probably a hopeful sign. Yes, the most extreme wing of the Republican Party has taken control of the Arizona Party. Yes, they will be mobilizing money and hate to power their election campaigns. But as we saw in the last election when racist candidates ran for congress and state legislatures here in Southern Arizona, the went down to DEFEAT.  David Waid, our newly elected State Chair, has just sent an email around the state talking about this story. His message: it is time for Democrats to come together and we (Democrats) need more volunteers and money now. Here is a link to the Arizona Democratic State Website where your contributions will be gratefully received. Arizona State Democrats.

Pouring Additional Doubt on Wisdom of Bush/McCain Surge…

A much-anticipated assessment of Iraq by America’s intelligence agencies describes a worsening cycle of chaos in the country, and predicts that the sectarian strife will continue to fracture the country without bold actions by Iraqi politicians.

And even if violence is diminished, prospects for a political reconciliation in the country are dim “given the current winner-take-all attitude and sectarian animosities infecting the political scene,” the assessment warns.

This combined intelligence study paints a dark cloud over the reasonability of a surge strategy. It suggests that, all other factors being equal, America will still be entrenched in this civil war during the 2008 election cycle. Moreover, the timing, only a few days after W (worst ever) announced his “new way forward” strategy strongly suggests that the President is not heeding the advise of his own intelligence agencies.

Click here to read more about the study.

Our reaction is that this report suggests that hard or soft partition of Iraq should be studied. The evidence is piling up that America does not have resources, treasure or cherished youth, to force a solution on this mess.

The Outlook is Bleak and There is Almost No Hope…
The National Intelligence Council has issued a press release summary of the conclusions of it’s latest estimate of the situation in Iraq. This information was undoubtedly available to W (worst ever) as he considered the “surge” option. In stark terms, this assessment spells out a dark future for Iraq and the American presence there. The NIE does not say, but suggests that either violent partition or the rise of a Shia dictator to replace Saddam Hussein may be the inevitable outcome of the Iraq war regardless of what America does.

In this article, we urge you to click on the link above to the press release and read the actual summary judgements of the National Intelligence Council. In addition we recommend that you read the article Spencer Ackerman produced by TPM Muckraker.com, a leading liberal BLOG site.

The estimate begins with the idea that growing polarization between Sunni and Shia sects, the weakness of the government and the security forces are fueling increases in communal (civil war) and insurgent (foreign sectarian) violence. The cycle of attack and revenge is building. Unless curtailed within the next 12 to 18 months the situation will continue to worsen toward collapse. BUT, EVEN IF THE VIOLENCE IS CONTROLLED, the sectarian divisions are so deep that Iraqi leaders are unlikely to acheive political reconciliation.

The challenges driving the Iraqi situation are daunting and together they are determining the social and political trajectory of the country.

• Decades of political, economic and socal domination by Sunnis have made Shias deeply insecure.
• Sunnis remain unwilling to accept minority status and believe that the current government is illegitimate.
• There are NO IRAQI Leaders that call for unification between Shia and Sunni sects. The Kurds continue to participate but are unwilling to make any concessions.
• Kurds are mounting a systematic campaign to control a scheduled referendum in Kirkurk and thus control that oil-rich city. Both Sunni and Shia elements of Kirkurk’s population are resisting violently.
• Iraq security forces are likly unable to take on new tasks or operate independently (within the foreseeable future) and particularily against Shia forces.
• Extremists including the Shia leader Jaysh al-Mahdi and al-Queda are effective in sponsoring violence.
• Significant population displacement indicates hardening of sectarian divisions.

Iraq’s neighbors (Iran and Syria) influence and are influenced by events in Iraq. But this involvement IS NOT LIKLEY to be a major driver of violence or the prospects for stability. Nonetheless, Iran is providing support to Shia forces active in the country. Syria is providing sanctuary and safehaven for Sunnis and former Baathists.

As the situation continues to deteriorate, the likehood of “triggering events” is increasing. These “triggering events” could produce a complete collapse of the Iraqi government. Three possibilities were cited in the report including (1) the sustained mass sectarian killing that is currently under way, or (2) the assassination of a key religious or political figure, or (3) a wholesale Sunni defection from the parlement.

If these “triggering events” occur they could spark an abrupt increase in communal or sectarian violence and shift the trajectory of Iraq toward rapid, uncontrollable deterioration with grave humanitarian consequences. If so, this grim assessments continues… there are three possibilities

• Chaos will lead to forced partition. Iraq will collapse and divide itself into three mutally antagonistic states.
• The emergence of a Shia strongman dictator to replace Saddam Hussein.
• Anarchy and fragmentation of power with the greatest potential for ethnic clensing.

Not exactly the best of all choices. Much of this is beyond our power to prevent. George Bush and the neo-con Republicans on his staff are directly responsible for this situation. In the first instance, we should never has gone into Iraq; the American people were deceived by the Bush Administration propaganda. But having gone in, there was no plan of how to proceed beyond the first week or so. The joint decison of Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld decision to liquidate the Iraqi Army and to suppress the Baath Party have proved to be catastrophic to our interests.

For Bush, now with this information in his hands, to say we should send 22,000 targets to Iraq is or should be criminal. This is not a surge. The document holds out no hope that the situation will get better in the next eighteen months. The time to consider a partitioning of the country has come. We need to engage the Europeans, the Chinese & Russians, and the regiional states including Turkey, Iran, Syria and Saudia Arabia in discussions to that end. Bush’s Iraq War, if continued, will lead to the slaughter of hundred of thousands of innocents and the consequence of a wider conflict in the middle east is a bigger price than even a Neo-Con should want to pay.

The Financial Times today reports on the Iraq Refugee Crisis. Nearly two million Iraqis have fled their country and have become ex-patriots since the United States invasion and occupation began. Nearly another two million Iraqis have been forced from their homes and have “voluntarily” relocated within Iraq.  Further, the Financial Times estimates that nearly 1,000 civilians are being killed each week.  So much for compasionate conservatism!

Nobody in the world with access to a television can be in any doubt that the US-led invasion of Iraq four years ago has been a disaster. What they, and we, are much less aware of is that it has already produced the worst refugee crisis in the Middle East since the mass exodus of Palestinians that was part of the violent birth of the state of Israel in 1948. And what we should all be scandalised by is how little the two countries most responsible for the Iraq misadventure – the US and the UK – are doing to alleviate this crisis.

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, about 2m Iraqis have fled the country and 1.8m have been displaced within Iraq since the invasion of March 2003.  Read More.

Incredible as it may seem, the Bush Administration appears to be moving forward with plans to conduct air strikes and further escallations against Iran. The excuse appears to be that Iran is supporting its Shiite neighbors in Iraq. The Manchester Guardain today has a story about plans for a new phase to the war on terror.

US preparations for an air strike against Iran are at an advanced stage, in spite of repeated public denials by the Bush administration, according to informed sources in Washington.

Neo-conservatives, particularly at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, are urging Mr Bush to open a new front against Iran. So too is the vice-president, Dick Cheney. The state department and the Pentagon are opposed, as are Democratic congressmen and the overwhelming majority of Republicans. The sources said Mr Bush had not yet made a decision. The Bush administration insists the military build-up is not offensive but aimed at containing Iran and forcing it to make diplomatic concessions. The aim is to persuade Tehran to curb its suspect nuclear weapons programme and abandon ambitions for regional expansion. Click here to read more.

Our February meeting was held Saturday, February 10th 2007. Dr. Bill Dixon, Chairman of the U of A Political Science Department addressed the club and led a forum on the Foreign Policy, the Middle East and the Iraq War. Also appearing in a packed house at the activities center was Ms. May George, an Iraqi native and Phd Candidate and Dr. Faten Ghosn, a Professor of Middle Eastern Studies.

Bill Dixon warned the club that the Bush Administration appears to be seriously considering pre-emptive military strikes against Iran in the coming months. See also, our Target: Iran story below from the Manchester Guardian. As evidence, he cited the movement of a second carrier group into the Persian Gulf and the appointment of a Navy Admiral as Commander of Central Command. Both these events suggest that Bush intends to attack Iran. He is apparently being urged on by Dick Cheney and the NeoCons at the American Enterprise Institute. Bill Dixon said it is especially sad to see that certain reporters at the New York Times appear to be slanting articles to blame Iraq War problems on Iran. This was very similar to the pre-Iraq articles that demonized Saddam Hussein and Iraq in the build-up to our invasion and occupation.

Dr. Fatn Ghosn led a very knowledgeable discussion on Lebanon and the internal politics between Hezbolah and Hammas. She noted that Sunni & Shiite confilict strife is beginning to spread thoughout the Middle East.

May George was able to paint a very interesting description of life under Saddam Hussein. She noted that all sects lived peacefully together and that Iraqis were safe and prosperous.

Dick Cheney has apparently decided not to testify in the purjury trial of his one-time deputy “Scooter” Libby. Further, Libby’s lawyers have decided not to put Libby on the stand either. The result will be little or no defense in a trial that could put Scooter in jail.

The trial has received wide attention as there has been a presumption for months that Dick Cheney would have to testify under oath. Federal prosecutors were expected to sharply question the Vice President as to whether or not he ordered Libby to disclose Valerie Plame’s connection with the CIA as a means of squelching the critisism mounted by her husband, Joseph Wilson. At the time Valerie Plame was an undercover officer of the CIA and her husband just completed an investigation of administration claims that Niger had conspired to sell uranium to Saddam Hussein. Wilson found that the charges were false and many suppose that Cheney and Rumsfled were seeking to “punish” him.

So, perhaps our best opportunity to grill Cheney under oath and subject to purjury will not occur. In a sort of wierd deja vu, the trials of the Watergate era can be remembered.  Then, official after official agreed to prison rather than to testify regarding Nixon and Haldeman.

Read more in the Washington Post.

The CIA’s former No. 3 official and a defense contractor were charged Tuesday with fraud and other offenses in the corruption investigation that sent former Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham to prison, The Associated Press has learned.

Federal indictments named Kyle “Dusty” Foggo, executive director of the CIA until he resigned in May, and his close friend, San Diego defense contractor Brent Wilkes, both 52, according to two government officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because grand jury proceedings are secret.

One of the officials said the grand jury heard claims that Foggo joined Wilkes on trips to Hawaii and Scotland, and was introduced to Wilkes’ employees as early as 2003 as a “future executive” of Wilkes’ company, Wilkes Corp., which allegedly received $12 million in illicit contracts from various government agencies. Click here to read more.

The US House of Representatives has voted in favour of a resolution criticising President George W Bush’s decision to send extra troops to Iraq. More than a dozen of his Republican Party joined the Democrats in passing the non-binding motion 246 to 182.  While the resolution was non-binding, it was seen as stinging rebuke of the President.

Capping four days of passionate, often angry debate, the House delivered President Bush its first rebuke since the Iraq war was launched nearly four years ago, voting 246 to 182 to oppose the administration’s planned deployment of 21,500 additional combat troops to Iraq.

Seventeen Republicans joined 229 Democrats to approve a resolution that expresses support for U.S. combat forces but opposes the additional deployments. Two Democrats opposed the measure.  Click here to read more in the Washington Post. 

Using an obscure provision of the Patriot Act, the Justice Department recently fired seven U.S. Attornys including  Paul Charlton, the U.S. Attorney for Arizona.  As the story has played out, it has become obvious that these seven individuals were each independently conducting investigations of corruption and fraud involving multiple members of congress, mostly Republicans, including Congressman Renzi.

In today’s Los Angeles Chronicle there is an article about Republican Senators who are trying to block a Democratic effort to over-ride this particular “Patriot Act” provision.  Supprise, supprise, who is leading the charge?  It is none other than Jon Kyl our own Neo-Con.

Click here to read more in the Los Angeles Chronicle.